Kenya's next General Election remains more than a year away, yet the warning signs that have historically preceded electoral unrest are already becoming increasingly visible. Political mobilisation is gathering pace. Public discourse is becoming more polarised. Social media platforms are increasingly saturated with misinformation, coordinated disinformation campaigns and hate speech. At the same time, concerns continue to grow over the emergence of organised criminal groups—commonly referred to as goons—who have increasingly been associated with political intimidation, disruption of peaceful assemblies, attacks on opponents and the suppression of civic participation.
These developments come against the backdrop of findings by the Kofi Annan Foundation's Electoral Vulnerability Index (EVI), which estimates an 84.1 per cent probability of election-related violence if existing vulnerabilities are not adequately addressed. The figure is not a prediction of inevitable conflict, nor should it be interpreted as an unavoidable outcome. Rather, it serves as an evidence-based early warning that underscores the urgency of strengthening institutions, reducing political tensions and investing in preventive action before campaigns intensify.
Kenya's democratic progress has been marked by important constitutional reforms, stronger electoral institutions and expanded civic participation since the promulgation of the Constitution of Kenya, 2010.
Yet experience from previous electoral cycles demonstrates that violence rarely begins on polling day. It often develops gradually through inflammatory political rhetoric, organised intimidation, economic frustrations, weak accountability, online incitement and the mobilisation of vulnerable young people by political actors.
The challenge therefore is no longer simply how the country responds after violence occurs. The greater test of democratic maturity is whether Kenya can prevent violence before it begins.
Election-related violence affects entire communities, but its consequences are rarely experienced equally.
Women frequently encounter political intimidation, targeted harassment, threats of sexual violence and gender-based attacks intended to discourage them from seeking elective office or participating in political campaigns.
Female aspirants continue to report coordinated online abuse, character assassination, manipulated images, false allegations and sustained trolling on social media platforms. These attacks are often designed not to challenge policy positions but to silence women from public life altogether.
Technology has amplified these threats. The rapid spread of artificial intelligence has made it easier to create manipulated videos, fabricated photographs and digitally altered content capable of damaging reputations within hours. Disinformation campaigns targeting women candidates increasingly exploit gender stereotypes, cultural biases and misinformation to undermine credibility before campaigns even begin.
For many women, the greatest barrier to political participation is no longer the absence of constitutional rights. It is the hostile political environment in which exercising those rights has become increasingly difficult.
Children also bear lasting consequences whenever political violence erupts. Schools close. Learning is interrupted. Families are displaced. Access to healthcare becomes uncertain. Exposure to violence often leaves long-term psychological effects that extend well beyond election periods. Young people remain among those most affected by electoral instability.
Despite representing the largest demographic segment of Kenya's population, many unemployed youth continue to face economic vulnerabilities that increase the risk of exploitation by political actors. Across previous electoral cycles, criminal groups have recruited unemployed young people to intimidate opponents, disrupt rallies, attack communities or create fear during campaigns. The growing phenomenon of politically mobilised goons represents one of the most significant threats to peaceful elections. These organised groups do not merely threaten politicians; they threaten democracy itself.
